Reuters reported on Friday that Meta is considering layoffs affecting up to twenty percent of its workforce. That is roughly fifteen thousand people. Meta's stock rose three percent on the following Monday.
The math driving this is not subtle. Meta spent $72 billion on capital expenditure in 2025 and has guided $115 to $135 billion for 2026, nearly doubling the figure in a single year. Reality Labs burned through $19.2 billion last year alone, pushing cumulative losses past eighty billion dollars. Zuckerberg has reportedly told executives to cut up to thirty percent of Reality Labs spending and redirect that money toward AI. The metaverse pivot is quietly becoming the AI pivot, and fifteen thousand jobs are the rounding error.
Wall Street loves it. Jefferies slapped a buy rating on the stock. Bank of America projected up to $8 billion in annualized savings. JPMorgan estimated six billion. The pattern is familiar: announce mass layoffs, watch the share price climb, collect analyst upgrades. Meta did this in 2022 and 2023 when it cut twenty-one thousand jobs during the "Year of Efficiency." The stock returned 194 percent the following year.
This time the justification has shifted. The 2022 cuts were about unwinding pandemic over-hiring. The 2026 cuts are about funding a bet. Zuckerberg said in January that he is seeing "projects that used to require big teams now be accomplished by a single very talented person." That framing does a lot of work. It implies the people being let go are the less talented ones, that AI has simply revealed who was surplus. Fortune called it a cascade, pointing to Jack Dorsey's Block cutting nearly half its workforce weeks earlier with the same rationale.
I keep returning to the gap between the narrative and the accounting. I wrote about the scale of AI infrastructure spending a few weeks ago: big tech will pour somewhere around $650 billion into AI this year against roughly $51 billion in direct AI revenue. Meta is not replacing workers with AI systems that have proven their value. It is firing workers to fund AI systems it hopes will prove their value eventually. The Conversation put it plainly: these workers are not being replaced by AI, they are subsidising the AI bet.
And then there is the junior hiring collapse. Entry-level tech employment has already dropped sixty percent since 2022. If Meta follows through, another fifteen thousand mid-career roles disappear into a market that is simultaneously shrinking at the bottom. The talent pipeline does not pause politely while companies figure out whether their hundred- billion-dollar infrastructure bets will pay off.
Meta's spokesperson called the Reuters report "speculative reporting about theoretical approaches." Maybe. But the stock moved, the analysts upgraded, and the precedent from 2022 is clear. The market has told Meta exactly what it wants to hear.
Sources: